Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,635$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(291 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,744.6}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 71.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,744.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $52$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.7 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56.8}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 57.3)}}\) (asimptote \(56.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $314$ on 2020-06-25

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $118,375$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(586 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{565,663.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 125.1)}}\) (asimptote \(565,663.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,292$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(33 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,418.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 83.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,418.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $56,109$ on 2020-06-25

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,411$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(158 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,332.9}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 82.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,332.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $142$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(10.3 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{531.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 129.7)}}\) (asimptote \(531.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,384$ on 2020-06-25

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,739$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(3.6 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(8.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,717.4}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 88.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,717.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $119$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(0.548 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{125.4}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 71.9)}}\) (asimptote \(125.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,395$ on 2020-06-25

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $61,130$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(898 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{114,566.0}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 101.2)}}\) (asimptote \(114,566.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,533$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(74 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $42,259$ on 2020-06-25

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,001$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(94.1 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,769.0}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 66.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,769.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.66 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,454$ on 2020-06-25

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,445$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,932.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 61.1)}}\) (asimptote \(12,932.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $878$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(171 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(40.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{834.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(834.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,647$ on 2020-06-25

Gabon⮸

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,087$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(130 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,554.2}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 75.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,554.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $40$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(0.984 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 114.9)}}\) (asimptote \(123.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,777$ on 2020-06-25

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Chad recovered 96%
Djibouti recovered 87%
Sierra Leone recovered 16%

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $863$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(156 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{864.5}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(864.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $74$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(28.2 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{71.2}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 14.7)}}\) (asimptote \(71.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15$ on 2020-06-25

Sierra Leone⮸

Population $7,976,983$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,354$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(128 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,447.6}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 47.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,447.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $56$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(14.4 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52.6}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 22.8)}}\) (asimptote \(52.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $429$ on 2020-06-25